Маркет трендс как пользоваться

Как использовать индикатор «Market Sentiment».

Для ответа на этот вопрос я взял график и отметил дни с резкими перепадами сентимента и попробовал описать, что происходило в эти дни.

Получилось вот что:

На падающем тренде пик негатива пришелся на дни, закончившиеся падением и после которых последовала коррекция к падению.
На растущем тренде пик негатива пришелся на дни, когда рынок находился в коррекции к росту.
На падающем тренде пик позитива пришелся на дни, которые закончились ростом, но после которых падения продолжилось.
На растущем тренде пик позитива пришелся на дни после роста, и после которых последовала коррекция к росту.

Далее нужно учесть тот момент, что:

Так как обзоры выходят перед открытием рынка и аналитики в своем тексте описывают ситуацию по нашему рынку за вчерашний день,
и ситуацию на других площадках (азия, запад), чьи настроения могут повлиять на наш рынок, и дают свою оценку на сегодня то..

1.Если тренд падающий и сентимент негативный — предпочтительны продажи в этот день. (3 случая)
2.Если тренд падающий и сентимент до этого был негативный, а сегодня позитивный — коррекция к падению в этот день. (2 случая)
3.Если тренд падающий и сентимент вчера был позитивный — предпочтительны продажи в этот день. (2 случая)
4.Если тренд растущий и сентимент позитивный — коррекция к росту в этот день. (3 случая, включая сегодня)
5.Если тренд растущий и сентимент негативный — предпочтительны покупки в этот день. (4 случая)

Как использовать индикатор

Итого из 12 случаев, отмеченных перепадами настроений, дали 14 удачных прогнозов закрытия дня.

Примерно так пока получается. По мере накопления истории можно будет анализировать и прогнозировать более детально.

Up 15:30.
Протестировал стратегию в Excel, получилось мало сделок при росте. Если четвертый пункт использовать на покупку то эквити выглядит вот так:

Как использовать индикатор

Сделки только по тренду. Тренд Open<>SMA. Открытие позиции в начале дня, закрытие в конце дня.

Всего сделок 18 (шортов 8, лонгов 10), прибыльных сделок 78%. Если считать в пунктах, то при стартовой сумме равной цене контракта доходность за период +15,5%, максимальная просадка -2,5% (по ценам открытия, без лоу) .

Если смотреть изменение фьючерса за период, то доходность у него +12,5%, а максимальная просадка -12.5%. (по ценам открытия, без лоу)

Маркет трендс — вычислитель трендов

Хотел бы обратить внимание сообщества трейдеров на данном форекс форуме на новое приложение для трейдинг аналитики: «Market Trends» (или «Рыночные тренды – автоматические форекс сигналы» на русской странице приложения) в магазине Гугл Плей.

Приложение весьма простое и доступное для понимания даже новичков на рынке форекс, что однако не уменьшает его эффективности. Идея заключается в обработке живых котировок ведущих валютных пар и драгоценных металов и выводе данных по 3 ведущим индикаторам технического анализа. Идет подсчет показателей индикаторов Relative Strength Index и Stochastic (с параметрами 14 и 14, 3, 3), а также разницы между короткой (9 периодов) экспоненциальной скользящей средней и длинной (21 период) в процентах.

По каждому индикатору выдается сила тренда, которая разделена на 5 фаз: сильная продажа, продажа, нейтрально, покупка и сильная покупка, которые суммируются в общий сигнал: главный для каждого актива.
Форекс сигналы генерируются на несколько популярных таймфреймов, таких как: 5 минут, 15 минут, 1 час, 4 часа и 1 день, причем переключение пересчитывает сигналы сразу для всех активов. Для удобства форекс тредеров в приложении используется свечной график с вбитыми дефолтом упомянутыми индикаторами. Для более продвинутых трейдеров существует возможность кастомной настройки уровней силы сигнала для каждого индикатора, для максимального приближения под персональный стиль форекс трейдинга.

Данное приложение в сущности позволяет вам в течении считаных секунд получить картину происходящего на валютных рынках и максимально быстро отреагировать на зарождающийся тренд. Ожидается последующее внедрение данного инструмента на платформы форекс брокеров, на данный момент Рыночные тренды доступны только для обладателей андроидов.

How to analyse market trends

stocks

Trends assume either asset prices will go up (bullish) or down (bearish).

How market trend analysis works
Understanding market trend timeframes
Applying market trend analysis to investing
How to spot investment trends early

This is module one of Investing for Intermediates, a course giving you practical tips for investing.

What is market trend analysis?

Market trend analysis involves analysing historical share price movements and buying and selling activity.

Past performance cannot tell you with any certainty what will happen to your investment returns in the future. But it can help.

Assessing past performance, returns and market trends, can also improve your familiarity with certain sectors or types of investment. It can help you understand, for example, why some companies or industries may be struggling or doing well at particular times.

For more on strategies, check out our guide to the top investment strategies.

What is a market trend?

A market trend shows the direction a stock or sector is moving in – up or down. In investing terminology, these are known as a bull (up) market and bear (down) markets.

Identifying and understanding market trends can help you forecast which companies are likely to make a profit, and to monitor investment industry trends.

Traders will focus on three timeframes when undertaking market trend analysis.

Secular (long-term). A company or sector is expected to continue moving in the same direction (up or down) for at least the next five years. Examples of companies believed to be on a long-term growth trajectory include tech firms such as Netflix and Google, which continue to innovate and dominate their respective sectors.
Primary (medium-term). Looking at expected movements for at least the next year, taking performance over the previous year as a guide. Examples include BP, whose share price has risen over the past year amid a surge in oil prices. Analysts are bullish about oil price growth in 2022.
Secondary (short-term). Focuses on short-term price movements over weeks or months. For example, the Cineworld cinema chain, whose shares have struggled over the past few weeks as the Omicron coronavirus variant causes unease over social activities. This uncertainty may not go away in the next few weeks or months.

The above trends can help you analyse historical share price movements in companies and sectors, in order to form a stronger picture of where they are likely to go next.

How to analyse market trends

Assessing market trends can involve:

Looking at charts or tables of past price movements on the stock market
Analysing human mass psychology
Finding patterns of price movement and behaviour

It is the opposite of fundamental analysis, where investors focus on a company’s financial reports to predict its future growth.

Robert Edwards, co-author of the book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, believes investors can tell more about a company’s prospects from the study of its past performance on the stock market than they can from analysing the company’s past financial performance.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, adds spotting when a company or market is on a bull or bear run can be tricky.

“Take the example of US markets,” she says. “Despite the sudden dip at the start of the pandemic, overall the US has been in a bull market for over 12 years. So, although spotting the trend may appear simple, the problem comes when you don’t know how long it will last.

“Rather than concentrating on trying to time the market to a trend, investors would be better off thinking about the amount of time they spend in a market. For example, if you had put money into the UK stock market at the start 1990, 31 years later your investment would be worth over nine times more. That’s despite having gone through the volatility of the dotcom bubble popping, the financial crisis, Brexit and the pandemic slide.”

“The US has been on a bull market for over 12 years…but you don’t know how long that will last.”

Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown

How to spot trends early

Spotting trends means guessing how an economy and society may look in the next decade and beyond.

To stay on top of trends:

Read and absorb as much information as you can
Monitor financial news, but also monitor general news
This will show you broader economic, political and societal trends that may have an impact on individual companies.

Technology over the past 25 years has caused the single biggest disruption to society – especially internet search engines, social media, smartphones and video conferencing. All have had a huge impact on our lives.

The question is, where will technology go next? According to research from management consultancy McKinsey, top future tech trends include:

Automation: about half of all jobs could be automated in the next few decades.
Cloud computing: some 70% of global companies are estimated to now use cloud computing software, allowing access to files and data from multiple devices.
Biological science: personalised medicines and genetics-based guidance on food and exercise are likely to become more commonplace over the next decade.

Don’t jump the shark

The phrase “jumping the shark” means something is facing an inevitable decline in quality. It is commonly used to describe a TV show that is losing its way, but also applies to investing.

Jumping the shark in investing describes the moment a company has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide. If you own it, now is the time to sell.

Use market trends analysis to identify when a stock may be heading for a downward curve – so you are not caught out when the decline starts to set in.

Monitoring rival companies’ performance is a good way to spot trends.

Take the below example:

The shares of BP and Shell have moved in very similar ways in the past year. So if you have invested in either of these oil giants, it may be helpful to monitor how the other is performing to spot an early sign that a trend may be about to change.

Next in our Investing for Intermediates course: Market trend analysis – How to pick stocks

Investing for Intermediates: the course

Investment strategies
Market trend analysis
How to pick stocks
Investing in dividend stocks
Property investment strategies
Alternative investments

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In this guide

How to invest in the S&P 500

When investing for the long-term, some people aim to track the performance of the largest companies in the US via the S&P 500. We explain what this index is, and how your portfolio can mimic its performance. The US boasts the world’s largest economy. This is illustrated by its gross domestic product (GDP), which is […]

Is now a good time to buy UK shares?

The UK’s stock market has had a tumultuous recent history. Shaken by domestic and global events, from Brexit to the pandemic, the threat of another stock market crash can’t be ruled out. But with UK equities cheap in absolute terms, is now the time to buy British? The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and […]

why are oil prices going up

Is oil a good investment?

Oil prices are on the rise once again, and this has been accelerated by recent events in the Middle East. So is now a good time to invest in oil? Oil prices can be volatile and like most commodities are affected by a number of external factors, such as global supply and geopolitical tensions, including […]

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How do you use market trends to create a successful product?

Market trends are the changes in customer needs, preferences, behaviors, and expectations that affect the demand and value of products and services. As a product manager, you need to understand and anticipate market trends to create a successful product that solves real problems and delivers unique benefits. In this article, you will learn how to use market trends to create a product vision, validate your assumptions, prioritize features, and communicate your value proposition.

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Identify market trends

The first step to use market trends to create a successful product is to identify the relevant trends that impact your target market, industry, and domain. You can use various sources of information, such as market research, customer feedback, competitor analysis, industry reports, and social media, to discover and monitor the trends that affect your product. You should look for trends that indicate shifts in customer needs, pain points, expectations, behaviors, preferences, and values. You should also consider how external factors, such as technology, economy, society, and environment, influence the trends and create opportunities or threats for your product.